In order to impeach the President a simple majority must happen in the House and to convict the President a two-thirds vote must happen in the Senate. With the Republicans in control of both the House and the Senate, getting Trump impeached is a tough math problem.

First, let’s look at House of Representatives, where a simple majority vote would be enough to start impeachment proceedings against Trump. There are 435 seats in total. Republicans hold 240, Democrats 193, and there are two vacant seats. A majority is 218 votes. Assuming all Democrats would vote for impeachment, then the Democrats would need 25 more votes for a majority, coming from the members who fill the vacant spots and Republicans who are displeased with Trump as the representative of their party.

Considering all the vocal critics of Trump in his own party during the Presidential nominations and election campaign, it doesn’t seem impossible to believe that 25, or just a bit more than 10% of them, could be convinced to vote for impeachment, given the turmoil and global backlash he has created in his early days in office.

Considering all the vocal critics of Trump in his own party...it doesn't seem impossible to believe that 25, or just a bit more than 10% of them, could be convinced to vote for impeachment...

Though a majority vote in the House seems plausible, getting the two-thirds majority in the Senate needed to convict Trump will be more difficult. There are an even 100 seats in the Senate, with the Republicans holding 52 of them, the Democrats holding 46, independents with 2 seats. To convict Trump of impeachment, there needs to be 67 votes in the Senate. Again assuming all the Democrats vote to convict as well as the 2 independents, then 19 Republicans would have to vote for the conviction. That would be 37% of them–a much larger percentage.

The math is hard, and the odds are tough. Does that mean it can’t happen? Given all the unpredictable events that have happened around the world this year, including the election of Donald Trump as president, recent history has proven that even low probablity events can and do happen. Even when up against tough odds.

Further Reading